Beliefs shape what feels surprising before they shape what you conclude afterward.

What surprises you is a report on what you were expecting. Long before you reason about an event, your assumptions have decided whether it counts as normal or startling, and that first sorting happens without consultation. By the time you begin weighing evidence, half the work is already done. The bias sits earlier than most people look for it.

When something surprises you this week, stop and ask what you must have been assuming for it to feel that way. Then do the same when something fails to surprise you at all. Both directions tell you about the map you are carrying.