The best of prophets of the future is the past.

Past behaviour is the most reliable forecast anyone offers, especially in people. What someone has done repeatedly is what they will most likely do next, whatever they intend or promise, because the conditions that produced it are still in place. The same is true of you, which is the part that is easy to skip.

Where you are trying to predict how something will go, stop weighing the stated plan and look at the record instead. Three previous times, three outcomes. To stop your own record predicting you, change the conditions rather than the resolve.