It is the nature of truth in general, as of some ores in particular, to be richest when most superficial.

What is actually going on is often lying in plain sight while everyone digs for a hidden explanation. Complicated theories feel more intelligent than the obvious answer, so the obvious answer gets skipped and the search goes deeper than the subject deserves. Depth becomes a habit, and habits can be ways of avoiding a plain fact.

When something puzzles you, say the simplest account out loud before elaborating on it. Ask what you would conclude if you assumed people meant roughly what they said and did. Keep the sophisticated explanation in reserve for when the plain one genuinely fails.