Strategic patience watches incentives, not just words.

What people say tells you what they want you to think; what they are incentivized toward tells you what they will probably do. Watching incentives requires patience, because they reveal themselves through behaviour over time rather than through statements. It is slower and considerably more accurate.

When assessing someone’s position, ask what they gain and lose under various outcomes. Compare that to what they are telling you. Where the two diverge, trust the incentives.