Do not confuse pessimism with intelligence simply because it sounds cautious.

Negative predictions sound rigorous because they appear to account for what could go wrong, and there is a social premium on seeming unfooled. But a reflexive expectation of failure is not analysis; it is a default, and it is wrong as often as any other default. Sounding careful and being careful are different.

When a pessimistic take feels obviously smart, ask what specific evidence supports it. Often there is none beyond tone. Hold pessimism to the same standard you would hold optimism.