Pessimism feels smart because it’s rarely surprised. It’s also rarely right about you.

Expecting the worst has a clever look about it, since you are never the one caught out. The trick is that it takes credit for accuracy while dodging every test, because a prediction you never act on can never be checked. Pointed at something you might actually be good at, it stops working as caution and starts working as a lid.

Take one prediction you have made about yourself and run it. Enter the thing, submit the piece, ask the question. Whatever comes back, a guess has been replaced by a result, and only results move a belief.