A correct fact can support an incorrect conclusion when surrounded by missing facts.

Every fact points somewhere, and where it points depends on the facts standing next to it. A true detail set among absences becomes a lever for a conclusion it does not actually support. This is how careful, honest people are misled without anyone lying to them: they are shown a real thing in an incomplete frame and draw the reasonable inference from what they were given.

When a single striking fact is doing most of the work in an argument, go looking for its neighbors. Ask what else was true at the same time and what would have to be added to make the conclusion collapse. If nothing could, the case is strong. If a small addition would undo it, hold your verdict lightly.