Probability does not care how badly you need one specific outcome.

Wanting something badly does not tilt the odds. Need is a fact about you, not a fact about the world, and the world runs on its own indifferent arithmetic. This is hard because desperation feels like it should count for something, like the intensity of wanting ought to buy leverage somewhere.

When you notice yourself hoping harder as a strategy, ask what you would actually do to change the odds themselves. More attempts, better preparation, a second option running in parallel. Then let the hoping be what it is, honest feeling rather than a plan.