A good choice can still end badly. Judge the decision, not just the luck.

Decisions and results are related without being the same thing. You can read everything, ask the right people, pick the sensible option and still get a bad week, because the world holds a share in every outcome. Grading yourself only on how things landed teaches you to throw away good thinking after one piece of bad weather.

When something goes wrong, run two questions separately: was the choice reasonable with what I knew, and what do I know now that I did not. If the first answer is yes, keep the method. Update the information rather than your nerve.