If the worst case is something you can’t recover from, low odds aren’t much comfort.

Odds and stakes are different questions, and people mix them. A small chance of something you can walk away from is usually worth taking. A small chance of something permanent is a different kind of bet, because the low probability stops mattering the moment it happens. There is no averaging your way out of an outcome you cannot undo.

Before anything with real risk, ask what the worst version looks like and whether you could come back from it. If the answer is no, the odds are not the thing to argue about. Take the version with a floor under it, even when it is slower or less impressive.