Late at night your brain runs the numbers with a thumb on the scale. The downside turns vivid and detailed, the upside goes vague and faint, and you talk yourself out of something you actually want. Nothing about the situation changed, only the lighting did. Paper is honest in a way that midnight is not, because on paper you have to write the reward down too.

Get two columns going on an actual page: what you could lose, what you could gain, and how likely each really is. Do it in daylight, after food. Read it back and notice how different the same decision looks.