The right thing said at the wrong moment usually lands as the wrong thing.

Being correct is only part of what makes something worth hearing. The same true sentence can arrive as help or as an attack depending on whether the person has room to take it in, and timing decides which one shows up. People remember how it landed much longer than they remember that you were right.

Hold one accurate observation this week until a decent moment for it appears, ideally when the person is not already struggling. Ask whether they want it before you hand it over. If the answer is not now, keep it rather than spending it badly.