If you only remember the times you were right, your memory is working for your ego.

Memory is not a recording, it is a service, and it tends to serve whoever is paying. The times you called it correctly stay sharp and retellable, while the confident wrong guesses fade within days. That leaves you with a track record far better than the real one, and an instinct you trust more than the evidence supports.

Start writing your predictions down before you find out. Who will win, what grade you will get, whether that friend will text back. Checking the list later is mildly humbling and it quietly makes your judgement better.