The replay doesn’t care how sure you were. Neither does the truth.

Confidence is a feeling about a belief, and it can run high while the belief is wrong, which is a genuinely strange fact about being a person. Nothing in how certain you feel connects to how things are, so when the evidence turns up it simply reports, with no interest in what you were willing to bet.

Next time you are completely sure, say so out loud and then go and check. Keep doing that for a week. You will develop a much better sense of what your own certainty is worth.