A failed replication asks whether the original result belonged to the method or to its circumstances.

When a result does not reappear, the interesting question is what carried it the first time. Perhaps the method captured something real and durable, or perhaps it captured a moment, a place, a particular group of people, and the finding was always partly about the circumstances rather than the world. Repetition is how we separate the two.

Apply this to your own successes and failures. Something that worked once may have depended on conditions you did not notice at the time, a supportive manager, a lucky market, a version of you with more energy. Before repeating a strategy, ask which parts of the original circumstances came along with it.