The keyhole offers a view whose narrowness can make a wrong conclusion feel precise.

A narrow view produces a sharp image and a false sense of completeness. What you can see through the gap is clear, and the clarity gets mistaken for adequacy, so a wrong conclusion arrives feeling precise. Confidence tracks resolution rather than coverage.

So be most careful with the conclusions that feel sharpest on the least information. A single overheard remark, one message, one meeting. Ask what would be visible from a wider angle, and whether you would need to be wrong about very much for the view to change entirely. Usually the answer is no.