A forecast cannot decide how much inconvenience your plans can afford.

Information is not a decision. A forecast gives you the chance of rain; it cannot tell you whether rain would spoil the day or merely dampen it, because only you know what the plan is carrying. Two people can read the same percentage and be right to make opposite choices. Waiting for numbers to decide is often a way of avoiding the question of what you can absorb.

When you find yourself refreshing something for certainty, ask what happens if the bad version arrives. If you could live with it, go. If you could not, plan around it rather than hope past it.