I moreover affirm that our wisdom itself, and wisest consultations, for the most part commit themselves to the conduct of chance.

Careful thinking improves your odds and does not settle the result. Between the decision and the outcome sits a great deal you cannot see or steer, and much of what gets called good judgement afterwards was good judgement plus luck. This is not an argument against thinking. It is an argument against reading every outcome as a verdict on the thought behind it.

Judge your recent decisions by what you knew at the time rather than by how they turned out. Where a good process produced a bad result, keep the process. Where a sloppy call happened to land well, do not learn from it.