Test the simplest explanation before building an elaborate rescue.

There is a pull toward interesting explanations, especially when you have been thinking about something for a while. Elaborate theories are more satisfying than dull ones, and duller ones are usually correct. Checking the simple possibility takes minutes and saves the days you would otherwise spend building an intricate response to something that was never happening.

Before accepting a complicated account, list the boring explanations and rule them out one by one. Did someone simply forget. Is the obvious thing unplugged. It feels beneath the difficulty of the problem and it is frequently the answer.