Promises are what someone plans to do. Patterns are what they’ve already been doing. Trust the second one.

Anyone can mean a promise at the moment they make it. The gap shows up later, in whether the same person keeps doing the thing once it costs them something. A pattern is just a promise that has already been tested a few times, which is why it tells you more. Words describe a plan and behavior describes a habit.

Pick one person you keep giving second chances and look at the last five times instead of the last conversation. If those five all look the same, plan around what they actually do. Save your trust for the friend whose record matches their mouth.