Judgment means knowing that identical outcomes can come from very different causes.

Two situations can end at the same place and share nothing in the middle. A project fails from bad luck or from bad execution, and the result looks identical from outside. Learning from outcomes alone teaches you superstitions, because you extract lessons from a good result that came from a lucky break, or condemn a sound approach that met bad weather.

After something ends well or badly, spend some time on the path rather than the destination. Ask what actually produced this and whether you would make the same choices with the information you had. Reward good process even when it lost, and be suspicious of good results that came from decisions you would not repeat.