Feeling certain isn’t the same as being right. Your brain hands out that feeling for free.

Certainty is a sensation, not a measurement. It gets produced by familiarity, by how easily an explanation came to mind, by how many people agree, and none of those track accuracy. That is why you can feel completely sure and be completely wrong, and why arguing harder never fixes it.

Treat strong certainty as a prompt to check rather than a reason to stop. Ask what would have to be true for you to be mistaken, and whether you could name it if it were. Being able to describe the evidence that would change your mind is a better sign of a good position than how sure you feel.