Believe the pattern over the promise. Promises are free; patterns cost effort.

Promises describe an intention, and patterns describe a person. Saying the right thing costs nothing, which is why it is offered so freely, while a repeated behavior has been paid for in time and effort and is therefore real evidence. When the two disagree, the pattern is the truer one.

When someone tells you what they will do, wait and watch it happen twice. Notice whether the same apology has been made before in the same words. Give real weight to people whose record and speech agree, and adjust quietly where they do not.