The strongest explanation usually needs fewer excuses for contradictory facts.

Watch how much patching an explanation requires. A good one absorbs new facts naturally; a weak one needs a special reason for each inconvenient detail, and the reasons multiply over time. Any position can be preserved indefinitely if you are willing to add enough exceptions, which is exactly why the number of exceptions is such a useful signal.

When you are weighing two accounts, count the extra assumptions each requires to deal with the awkward facts. The one that needs fewer is usually closer. If your own view has been accumulating qualifications for years, that accumulation is telling you something.