Probability whispers while certainty shouts.

Certainty is loud because it is simple, and simplicity is easy to say with force. Probability speaks in ranges and conditions and maybes, which sounds weak next to someone declaring what will definitely happen. The quieter voice is usually the more honest one, and that is exactly why it loses arguments.

When you hear total confidence about the future, treat the volume as information about the speaker rather than the world. And when you speak, let yourself say roughly, or probably, or I am not sure. Precision about your own uncertainty is a form of accuracy.