One extraordinary story can make an ordinary risk look safer than it is.

One vivid example can overwhelm a great deal of quiet evidence. The story of the person who dropped out and built an empire, or gambled and won, sits in memory with a weight that no statistic can match, and it quietly recalibrates what feels reasonable. The story is true. It is just not typical.

Before following an example, ask how many people you would need to see to know whether it generalises. Look for the ordinary version of that path and what usually happens on it. Decide against the base rate, not the anecdote.