Sometimes the wisest move loses.

Wisdom improves your odds; it does not buy the result. You can weigh things carefully, take the option with the best expected outcome, and still lose, because uncertainty means the unlikely branch sometimes happens to the person who chose well. That is not a failure of the method, it is the shape of the world the method was built for.

When a careful choice ends badly, protect the method. Ask what you would advise a friend in the same position with the same information, and notice whether you would still say the same thing.