God tends to hand bigger things to people who handled small things well when no one was grading.

The qualifier is the whole point: not handled well, but handled well unsupervised. Plenty of people perform when they are being assessed, and that tells nobody anything useful. What is predictive is what you do with a task nobody will inspect, because that is the version you apply to everything later. Behaviour without an audience is the only honest sample.

Look at the tasks this week nobody is going to check. The bin, the email, the practice you could fake. Do one of them to the standard you would use if it were marked, and notice that you can tell.