A good explanation can still describe a bad decision.

A decision can be perfectly reasoned and still be the wrong one. Reasoning tells you how someone got from A to B, but it says nothing about whether B was worth arriving at. Intelligent people get stuck here more than anyone, because the quality of the argument feels like proof of the conclusion.

Test your decisions on outcomes rather than on how well you can defend them. Ask what actually happened the last three times you made a choice of this kind. If the results have been poor, the explanation is not saving you, it is delaying you.