You can skip the family trip one year without it being a statement. Say so early and kindly.

Missing one occasion is not a withdrawal from your family unless somebody decides to read it that way, and that reading becomes far more likely when the news arrives late. Most of the hurt in these situations comes from surprise rather than from absence. Saying it early gives everybody time to adjust their plans and their feelings. The warmth is in the timing as much as the words.

If you already know you are not going, say so now, kindly and with no list of reasons. Offer another time you will be there, then be there.