If you can’t explain why you’re making a move, you’re not playing strategy. You’re playing hope.

Moves you cannot explain are not strategy, however they turn out. One might work and you will have learned nothing from it, because there was no reason to be right or wrong about. Being able to say why is what makes the result useful afterwards, and it also catches a surprising number of bad ideas before you commit to them.

Before the next real decision, say the reason out loud in one sentence. If it comes out as hoping something goes a certain way, you have found the problem. Rework it until the sentence holds up.