The most interesting explanation is not automatically the one best supported by the facts.

A good story has a shape: a cause, an intention, someone responsible. Reality more often runs on drift, coincidence and several dull factors at once. Your attention rewards the interesting version because it is easier to hold and more satisfying to repeat, and that pleasure gets mistaken for evidence. The boring account is frequently the accurate one.

When an explanation makes you want to tell someone immediately, pause there and ask what would be true if it were wrong. Look for the tedious alternative and see how much of the same evidence it accounts for.