The wind changes a walk without asking whether you dressed for the new version.

Conditions do not wait for your preparation to catch up. You leave dressed for one afternoon and find yourself in another, and the gap between the two is not a failure of planning so much as the ordinary behaviour of the world. Most discomfort in a day comes from this small mismatch rather than from anything going wrong. Adjusting is usually easier than being right in advance.

Rather than trying to forecast better, build in slack you can use later. An extra layer in the bag, a spare half hour, a plan that survives being changed. Then when the afternoon turns, you are adapting rather than starting over.