The surprise often reveals how much certainty you had quietly invented.

Surprise measures your assumptions rather than the world. When something unexpected happens, the shock is proportional to how confidently you had filled in gaps you never checked, most of which you did not know you were holding. Being wrong-footed is information about the size of your private guesswork. The event was only what revealed it to you.

After the next surprise, small or large, write down what you had assumed without evidence. Ask where else you are doing the same thing right now. Then go and check one of those assumptions before it surprises you too.