Wisdom consists not in seeing what is directly before us, but in discerning those things which may come to pass.

Seeing what is in front of you takes no skill; the judgement is in seeing what comes next. Most poor decisions are not made in ignorance of the present facts but in complete inattention to the second and third consequence, the part where the shortcut becomes a precedent or the small loan becomes the shape of a friendship. Foresight is ordinary thinking applied one step further than usual.

Before the next decision of any size, ask what this makes likely in six months. Then ask it again about that answer. Two rounds of the question will catch most of what a year of regret would have taught you.