Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.

Expertise mostly teaches you how much is uncertain. The more somebody genuinely knows about a system, the more aware they are of the parts that could move unexpectedly, so their statements get hedged, specific and much less quotable. Confident forecasting tends to come from people far enough away from the detail to find it simple.

Use that as a listening filter rather than a rule. When you hear a clean prediction, ask what would have to be true for it to fail and whether the speaker can answer. And when you are the one asked to forecast, resist the pull to sound certain, because the hedge is usually the honest part.