Betting on yourself feels crazy until you realize everyone else is already betting on you to stay the same.

Doing nothing is also a prediction. Every arrangement you leave in place assumes next year looks like this one, and most of the people around you are quietly planning on that too. Backing yourself only seems like the risky option because it is the one where somebody decided on purpose.

Notice where you are being treated as a fixed quantity, in a job, a class, a group of friends. Ask what you would do if you assumed you could change. Then take the first step that only makes sense under that assumption.