Take the long shot at least once a year. Keep the rest of the calendar sensible.

A long shot works best as a small, deliberate piece of an otherwise sensible year. One application to the place you assume will say no, one submission, one ask: bad odds, one evening of cost, and a calendar around it that stays boring on purpose. People who take long shots constantly are not brave, they are just unsteady.

Schedule yours instead of waiting for the mood to arrive. Pick a month, put it down, send the thing. Then go back to the ordinary work, which is what keeps the next long shot affordable.