Not every pattern deserves prediction.

REFLECTION

WHAT THIS MEANS

The mind finds patterns everywhere because pattern-finding was cheap and useful, and it does not distinguish between a real regularity and three coincidences in a row. Some patterns are structural and will hold. Others are noise that happened to line up, and building a forecast on them produces confident nonsense. The discipline is in asking whether there is a mechanism, not just a shape.

Before you act on a pattern you have noticed, ask why it would be true. If you can describe the machinery underneath, trust it more. If all you have is that it has happened three times, note it, watch it, and do not yet build anything on top of it.

A QUESTION TO SIT WITH

Which two coincidences have you already turned into a rule?

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