Being first to believe something does not make you brave if it was never examined.

Getting somewhere early is only impressive if you got there by looking. Believing an unpopular thing before others did can come from careful independent thought or from having been drawn to whatever was contrarian, and later confirmation does not distinguish between them. Being right by accident feels exactly like being right on purpose, and pays the same social dividend.

When a view of yours is vindicated, check your reasoning at the time rather than only the outcome. If you cannot reconstruct why you believed it, count it as luck. That honesty is what keeps you from trusting a process that did not actually work.