A good result does not prove the decision that produced it was wise.

Outcomes and decisions are separate things, and the world constantly encourages you to collapse them. A reckless bet that pays off looks like foresight afterward, complete with a story about how you knew all along. But the only honest test of a decision is what you knew, what you weighed, and what you risked at the moment you made it.

After your next win, spend two minutes asking whether you would make the same call again knowing only what you knew then. If the answer is no, the win was borrowed. Judge your reasoning on its own terms before the result gets a vote.