The first offer often reveals less than the reaction to it.

The number matters less than what happens next. How quickly they respond, what they push back on, what they ignore, and where they become uncomfortable all reveal priorities that no amount of stated position will. The first offer is a probe, and the reaction is the information. That is true in both directions.

After making or receiving an opening offer, pay attention to the response rather than the counter. Note which parts drew energy and which were passed over. That map is worth more than anything either side says about their requirements.