Be suspicious of any belief that conveniently makes you innocent every time.

A belief that always arrives at your innocence is doing a job, and the job is probably not accuracy. Real life distributes responsibility unevenly and messily. Any framework that reliably lands you outside it every single time is shaped by preference rather than evidence, however reasonable each application seems.

Look at the explanations you reach for most often and check whether they ever conclude against you. If they never do, that is worth noticing. Try applying the same framework to someone else’s behavior and see if you find it convincing there.