The result that makes the best story may be the result least likely to happen again.

The most memorable outcome is often the least typical one. Striking results get told and retold precisely because they are unusual, and unusual results are, by their nature, the ones most likely to have depended on chance and least likely to repeat. Storytelling and reliability select for opposite things.

So be cautious with the vivid example, whether it is a company that succeeded strangely or a person who recovered against the odds. Ask how many similar attempts you never heard about. When you are deciding how to act, the boring middle of the distribution is a better guide than the story you cannot forget.