Telling a friend a hard truth is scary. Watching them walk into a wall because you didn’t is worse.

Fear of the conversation is usually fear of being the one who caused the bad moment. The bad moment is coming either way, and your silence only decides whether they walk into it informed. Saying something does not make you responsible for what they choose next. Saying nothing, though, is a choice you will remember.

Tell them once, in private, in the fewest words that are still true, and make clear you are staying either way. Then let them decide. You are offering information rather than issuing a verdict, and the difference shows mostly in how much room you leave afterward.