Your gut gets smarter every time you check how things actually turned out.

Intuition is not magic. It is compressed experience, and it only improves when experience gets fed back to it, which is why people who never look at outcomes keep the confidence and lose the correction. Checking how a hunch turned out is what turns a guess into something you can learn from. Without that loop you can be certain and wrong for years.

Before a decision you care about, write down what you expect in one sentence. Come back to it once you know. Over a few months the gap between prediction and result will show you where your instincts are sharp.