Yesterday’s prediction becomes amusing only after somebody has survived the uncertainty.

RESILIENCE

WHAT THIS MEANS

Wrong predictions are funny in retrospect and were not funny at the time. Somebody made a serious guess under genuine uncertainty, and other people arranged their plans around it, and the amusement only becomes available once the outcome is known and safely survived. Laughing at the forecast is a privilege that comes from having lived past the thing being forecast.

Be a little careful with confident hindsight about anyone’s earlier judgment, including your own. And when you make a forecast now, write down what you thought and why, so the eventual review is honest. Being wrong under uncertainty is not the same as being foolish.

A QUESTION TO SIT WITH

Which worry of yours looks funny now that it has passed?

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