A risk considered carefully can still require a leap at the end.

Analysis takes you to the edge and stops there. However thoroughly you think something through, there is a final moment where the information runs out and you have to move anyway. Preparation reduces the size of that gap without ever closing it, and expecting it to close is how careful people stall indefinitely.

Notice when your analysis has stopped producing new information. That is the edge. From there, more thinking is only delay dressed as diligence. Decide what would count as enough, confirm you have it, and then make the jump as a separate act rather than waiting for the thinking to turn into a jump on its own.